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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding 🍸of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of ma🌺tch is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation 𒆙team.
Stunni🐲ng: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chꦓances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home adva♉ntage but no evidence that in addition to that te𝔍ams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, tꦅhe number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins𝐆 are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result in༺s draw. By implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yesꦜ, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted 🐭to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
E🍸xtraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored 𝐆than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly💙 more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar amon𝐆g all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lo♓t more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start🌸 of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal dif🎐ference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average🌊 Performance leꦓvel of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence 🔴averages out during the cꦅourse of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidencജe. Additionally t🙈he performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance 🅘level.
The goal difference 🅠is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match dꦕay) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statis🗹tically relevant🌞. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, y🥃ou got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is ident💧ical for all teams. For that reason the goalsco🍨ring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that 🃏reaღson a „march through“ is very special.
༒With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you𝕴 can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at꧑ the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the e🦩ffect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enoughꦺ for today,💙 we will let you know another rime.